MLB Series Betting- White Sox at Red Sox

Both the Chicago White Sox and the Boston Red Sox are seeing Twins, the Minnesota kind, in the rearview mirror.


2008-08-29

Both the Chicago White Sox and the Boston Red Sox are seeing Twins, the Minnesota kind, in the rearview mirror. Chicago is trying to hold off Minnesota to win the AL Central, while Boston has one eye looking behind to keep the Twins back in the wild card chase and still peeking ahead to see if they can catch Tampa Bay in the AL East. With just over four weeks left in the regular season, these head to head matchups are extremely important in determining the outcome of who will be American League participants in the postseason.

Chicago passed its first test on nine-game road trip, winning series in Baltimore and will try to do the same in Bean Town for the holiday weekend. Sox skipper Ozzie Guillen believes Boston will have somewhat of a letdown after winning series against bitter rival New York. "I don't think they will be the same, mentally-tough-wise, after playing New York and then come to play us," Guillen said. "I know a little bit. They are going to be down. No way they are going to max out when you play in Yankee Stadium." The White Sox come into this contest 8-1 after a day of rest and will start Javier Vazquez (10-11, 4.37, 1.281) who is 8-0 when pitching on Friday’s for Chicago the last two seasons.

Boston nearly swept the Yankees except for late game heroics by Jason Giambi yesterday that helped salvage one game for New York. The Red Sox return to Fenway Park, where they will play 20 of their remaining 29 games, setting up possibility to make serious run at Tampa Bay. Boston has the third best home winning percentage in baseball and could actually surpass both the Cubs and the Rays, since they have played fewer home games and actually have fewer losses than either team at home. Sportsbook.com has Boston as -165 home favorites with Daisuke Matsuzaka (15-2, 2.98, 1.379) subbing for Josh Beckett, who was scratched again, with inflammation in his right elbow. Matsuzaka will be working on normal four days rest, thus routines will continue as normal. Matsuzaka is 8-2 at Fenway with 3.28 ERA in a dozen starts and the Red Sox will try and build on phenomenal 40-13 record against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season.

Game 1 Edge: Boston

This trend has been going on for years and it has not changed one iota this year for White Sox pitcher Mark Buehrle (11-10, 3.86, 1.322). The lefthander has been one of the most dominant pitchers in home ballpark since the new millennium began. Once he leaves the South Side of Chicago, he is either very ordinary or revolting, like this season. Buehrle has to hit his spots to be effective, when he doesn’t; this is why his record is 3-7 (Chicago 3-10) on the road. Incredibly for a veteran pitcher, his road ERA is 1.83 higher, compared to when he pitches at US Cellular Park. The Pale Hose come into this series 6-21 if home team has winning percentage greater than .600. The couple flickers of hope for Chicago involve Buehrle having 3.28 ERA pitching at night, compared to scary 7.09 figure in daylight. Unless brought in for emergency use on Friday, David Pauley (0-0, 10.38) will make his fifth major league start, his first since April 22 with the big club. Pauley had a strong year at Triple-A Pawtucket, going 14-4 with a 3.55 ERA in 25 starts. The BoSox will hope to mash, as they are 19-10 against lefties and 26-8 in home games vs. teams outscoring opposition by 0.5 or more runs a game before series started.

Game 2 Edge: Chicago

Having been off of Thursday, manager Guillen tighten up the rotation this time around and has Gavin Floyd (14-6, 3.70, 1.235) pitching on normal rest, just not in same sequence. Floyd has had huge impact on White Sox success this season and been dependable all year. Floyd has harnessed his ability and is brutal on right-hand hitters, as they are batting a pittance at .215. Floyd and the White Sox are .500 on the road, but 7-1 during the day. Knuckleballer Tim Wakefield (8-8, 3.73, 1.197) came off the disabled list and was competent in throwing five innings in Boston’s win at New York. Since learning to throw this dancing pitch, Wakefield has gone through amazing streaks of being un-hittable to being similar to a batting practice pitcher. In his last 10 starts he’s been more like the former, with 3.09 ERA, allowing 50 hits in 64 innings and better than 2 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio. The Red Sox are 24-17 in day games compared the White Sox who 26-19.

Game 3 Edge: Boston

The Chicago White Sox have not been bad on the road at 30-35; nevertheless Boston has such a decisive edge playing at Fenway before sellouts virtually every game. The Red Sox have won 15 of 20 home series, including seven sweeps in 2008, no reason to play against them over the weekend.

Sportsbook.com series odds: Boston -220, Chicago +170

StatFox Edge Pick: Boston

2008 Record – 10-7

MLB Series Betting- White Sox at Red Sox News

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