MLB Series Wagering - Seattle at Toronto

Toronto just concluded an eight game road trip that had stops in Boston and New York, finishing 3-5 after salvaging the final game against the Yankees on Thursday. The Blue Jays have been consistently average, not winning against teams higher in the stand


2007-07-21

Toronto just concluded an eight game road trip that had stops in Boston and New York, finishing 3-5 after salvaging the final game against the Yankees on Thursday. The Blue Jays have been consistently average, not winning against teams higher in the standings and defeating clubs with lesser records. Unfortunately, they’ll face the former this weekend as they welcome surging Seattle to the park once known as Skydome.

Toronto has the feel of team that is neither good enough to win consistently nor bad enough to start over, thus they might be in the worst place of all, baseball purgatory. That is not to say talent does not exist, with 3B Troy Glaus and outfielders Vernon Wells and Alex Rios, along with DH Frank Thomas, the Blue Jays can thump it. The problem is more the other starters getting on base regularly enough to let the big dogs eat. Toronto ranks 17th in runs scored in major league baseball.

In many ways Seattle is just an improved version of Toronto with more offensive answers. The Mariners have had a superb three plus months and trail front-running Los Angeles by just two games and are in the thick of wild card picture also. Seattle has hackers that go to the dish, being second in baseball in batting average. Safeco Park is not a home run hitter’s park, thus the M’s have to generate offense by just beating the hardball. The Mariners have competed well on the road this season with 22-21 record, bringing home +7.1 units of profit.

Toronto will open Jesse Litsch (2-3, 4.02) who has allowed a single earned run in his last two starts since being recalled from Triple-A Syracuse at the end of June. The 22-year old is still learning the ropes and has outstanding control coming up thru the minors. His biggest fault to this point is he won’t throw his slider enough off the plate to see if batters will chase it. At this level too much of the plate means base hits, with just an average fastball. The Birds are 26-19 (+3.1 units) at home this year and 36-16 against the money line at Rogers Centre when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last two seasons.

Miguel Batista (8-7, 4.38) has been masterful in his last three starts with 2.25 ERA and 2-1 record, having full command of all five of his pitches. He still walks more than he should, in part because he will not always go with his best two or three pitches on certain days. Seattle is a modest +105 underdog at Sportsbook.com and Batista is 21-12 (+15.6 Units) against the ML as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last two seasons. (Team's Record)

Game 1 StatFox Edge: Mariners

One of the problems that has held back Toronto all season is base stealing. American League teams have taken advantage of Blue Jays pitchers and catchers more then any team in the league. Toronto has surrendered the most thefts on the base paths due to pitchers not doing there jobs holding runners, with the cumulative effect being Blue Jays weak throwing catchers throw about 10 percent of all base runners. “We've got to put a little more focus there -- no question,” manager John Gibbons said. “That's the reality. We've got certain guys that are quick to the plate and that can equalize it a little bit. Then there are certain guys who aren't and we haven't been able to counter it.” Game Two’s probable pitcher Josh Towers (3-6, 5.28) is among those creating the problem. Towers lacks an out-pitch in his repertoire and is more suited for long relief at this point. His inability to keep the ball down much more than once through the line-up makes him easy pickings. The lack of wisdom the Seattle front office showed in signing Jeff Weaver (2-7, 6.82) is reminiscent of Milwaukee signing a sore-armed Teddy Higuera to a five year 35M deal in the late 1980’s. Weaver is just a nomad who found magic under the guidance of the Cardinal PC Dave Duncan. Nothing before and nothing since leads one to believe Weaver will be effective again. Seattle and the Weaver are 1-6 in his starts in day games.

Game 2 StatFox Edge: Blue Jays and Over

Seattle comes into this series 17-8 against the AL East, but will really have hands full in series finale. Horacio Ramirez (5-2, 5.89) has done an adequate job for the M’s in 2007. He pitched well against Baltimore in his last start coming off the DL. Why would the Mariners be big underdogs today? Two answers, Roy Halladay and Ramirez on the road. Starting with Seattle’s lefty, how does 13.21 ERA sound in four starts in visitors uniform? New manager John McLaren might want to have the bullpen warm up before Ramirez throws first pitch. We’re seeing higher than expected earned run average numbers from Roy Halladay (10-4, 4.46) however that is not the case at home. “Doc” Halladay and the Jays are 7-2 at home, picking up +3.8 units. Though Seattle is a greater deal better this season then in the past, they are 6-21 when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.

Game 3 StatFox Edge: Blue Jays

Toronto like most teams plays better at home. Given the fact they will miss Seattle’s two best starting pitchers is a blessing and have revenge on there minds after being swept in Seattle earlier this year. The Blue Jays are 7-3 in recent seasons at home against the Mariners and should get back on the winning track this weekend.

Sportsbook.com series odds: Seattle +125, Toronto -150
StatFox Edge series pick: Blue Jays

MLB Series Wagering - Seattle at Toronto News

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