NL West title going down to the wire

NL West title going down to the wire


2010-09-29

With the Colorado Rockies playoff hopes eliminated Tuesday, the NL West race is down to two teams. The Padres and Giants remain to fight for the division title. San Francisco enters Wednesday with a two-game lead on San Diego and hopes to widen the gap when it hosts the Diamondbacks. Meanwhile, San Diego continues its four-game series with the Cubs at Petco.

Sportsbook.com Odds: San Francisco -150, Arizona +140 Total: 7.5

A pair of red-hot pitchers meet in San Francisco Wednesday night when Ian Kennedy (9-9, 3.76 ERA) goes up against Tim Lincecum (15-10, 3.51). Kennedy has a 1.12 ERA over his past three starts and has given up one run or less in five of his past six starts. The Arizona bullpen hasn’t been kind to Kennedy, as the Diamondbacks have lost three of his past four outings despite Kennedy’s strong starts. One such instance was September 6 against the Giants, where Kennedy went eight shutout innings, only to see San Francisco win the game 2-0 in 11 innings. Kennedy has been impressive against the Giants over his career, going 1-1 with a 2.20 ERA in four starts.

Linecum enters Wednesday off a terrific outing in Colorado where he went eight innings, giving up one run on two hits while striking out nine. The right-hander is 2-1 with a 1.80 ERA over his past three starts. After struggling in August, Lincecum has shined in September, winning four of his five starts without allowing more than three runs in any of those outings. He’s 6-2 with a 2.71 ERA in 13 career starts against the Diamondbacks.

Even though the Diamondbacks bullpen is shaky, this MLB betting trend likes Arizona:

Play On - All underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (ARIZONA) - with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games. (42-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (70%, +32.6 units. Rating = 4*).

Sportsbook.com Odds: San Diego -150, Chicago +140 Total: 6.5

The Padres look to pick up some ground on the Giants before heading to San Francisco to close out the year in what should be the biggest matchup of the weekend. First, they hope Chris Young (1-0, 1.20 ERA) can take care of the Cubs. Young is making his third start since coming off the disabled list earlier this month. He’s been effective in his two outings, combining to go nine innings, while giving up two runs on six hits. The Padres have won both those games, against Cincinnati and St. Louis.

Young will be opposed by Randy Wells (8-13. 4.28 ERA) Wells has pitched well lately, going 2-1 with a 2.08 ERA over his past three starts. His most recent effort was especially impressive, throwing 7.2 innings of shutout ball and picking up a win in San Francisco. Wells was on the wrong end of a 1-0 game against San Diego in August where he gave up one run on three hits over seven innings, but still took the loss.

Despite their woeful season, this betting trend suggests there might be some value in backing Chicago:

Play Against - Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (SAN DIEGO) - poor hitting team (AVG <=.250) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20) -NL, with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season. (33-14 since 1997.) (70.2%, +32.1 units. Rating = 4*).

NL West title going down to the wire News

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